Vietnam’s Nine-Month 2026 Data: FDI Hits Five-Year High as Trade Gap With China Widens

On October 3, 2026, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office (NSO) under the Ministry of Finance released its socio-economic figures for the third quarter and first nine months of 2026. Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) reached US$21.07 billion in January–September, up 12.1% year on year and the highest level for the period in five years.

The trade figures released the same day show a wider deficit with China, Vietnam’s largest source of imports, alongside a larger surplus with the United States, its largest export market. The NSO also estimated GDP growth of 9.95% in the third quarter. Below is a summary of the key figures and what they may mean for businesses operating across borders.

Disbursed foreign investment reaches a five-year high

According to the NSO, disbursed FDI, meaning capital actually spent by foreign investors, rose 12.1% year on year to US$21.07 billion in January-September 2026. Manufacturing and processing accounted for US$17.40 billion, or 82.6% of the total.

Total registered FDI, which counts pledged rather than spent capital, reached US$50.36 billion as of September 30, 2026, up 76.4% from a year earlier. The total includes newly registered capital, capital added by existing projects, and capital contributions or share purchases by foreign investors. Newly registered capital amounted to US$29.24 billion, of which manufacturing and processing took US$13.38 billion, or 45.8%.

Singapore was the largest source of newly registered capital among 79 countries and territories, at US$9.26 billion, or 31.7% of the total, followed by South Korea (US$5.70 billion) and Luxembourg (US$4.99 billion).

Merchandise trade moves to a nine-month deficit

Total merchandise trade reached US$888.02 billion in the first nine months, up 30.4% year on year. Exports rose 24.5% to US$434.30 billion, while imports grew faster, up 36.7% to US$453.72 billion. As a result, Vietnam recorded a nine-month trade deficit of US$19.42 billion, compared with a surplus of US$16.87 billion in the same period of 2025.

September itself showed a trade surplus of US$1.27 billion, reversing the deficits recorded earlier in the year, according to the NSO data.

The United States and China remain the largest trading partners

The United States remained Vietnam’s largest export market, with exports of US$140.0 billion, while China remained its largest source of imports, at US$187.34 billion. The bilateral balances with the two countries moved further apart over the period.

Foreign-invested enterprises, including crude oil, accounted for 80.7% of Vietnam’s exports in the period.

What this means for cross-border businesses

Taken together, the figures show foreign capital continuing to flow into Vietnamese manufacturing while imports from China grow faster than exports to the United States. For businesses that source from or produce in Vietnam, this suggests that adding a Vietnamese supplier or facility may not, on its own, reduce reliance on inputs from China.

For smaller companies, the question is often practical rather than strategic: a new supplier has been added, but it is not clear what the business still depends on, or whether the company that signs contracts and receives invoices is still the right one. Points businesses may wish to review include:

• Where a main supplier’s key inputs and components originate.
• Which entity signs supplier contracts and pays invoices in each market.
• Whether that entity can send and receive payments in the new market without delays.
• What records are kept to show where goods are produced.

How BBCIncorp supports cross-border businesses

BBCIncorp helps founders and small businesses set up and run companies across borders, including in Hong Kong and Singapore, with support covering company incorporation, company secretary and ongoing compliance, and accounting and audit coordination, handled through online processes. A change in where goods are made often brings changes to contracts, invoicing and payments, which is the point BBCIncorp keeps coming back to: when plans change, the company setup behind them deserves a second look.

The bottom line

Vietnam’s nine-month figures show disbursed FDI at a five-year high of US$21.07 billion, alongside a 43.0% rise in the trade deficit with China. The NSO’s monthly release for October, expected in early November, and the full-year figures in early 2027 will show whether these trends held through the end of the year.

For questions about company setup or ongoing compliance across Asian jurisdictions, the BBCIncorp team can be reached at service@bbcincorp.com.